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ETHUSD short — 16 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,407.7 and hit its target at 2,385.8 after 41 minutes, closing at +0.91%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-16 18:43 |
| Entry | 2,407.7 |
| Stop-loss | 2,444 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,385.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,371.3 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.00 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,385.8 |
| Realized P&L | +0.91% |
| Time open | 41 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 15m/1h EMA bear-aligned, 5m/4h mixed (alignment 2/4); 1h ADX 31.7 but slope -2.2 (fading), ER-10 0.07 / ER-30 0.22 (path nets nowhere), choppiness 57.5 (neutral-choppy), Hurst 0.36 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 0.999 — a maturing bear stack whose trend is fading into low-efficiency drift. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short — bear EMA stack, taker ratio 0.89 (sell-lean), agg OI -0.67% with oi_momentum accelerating_down; the priors on this exact setup won 3/3 shorts recently. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow/OI cluster — OI unwinding (oi_5m_z -1.57, accelerating_down) into a bear-aligned trend with taker sell pressure (0.89) confirms sellers still in control despite the fade. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits +0.81% off the 5d/20d/90d low with rolling z -1.79 (deeply oversold) and top-traders net long (pos ratio 1.31) — a reclaim bounce off the low would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2407.66, stop above recent 4h swing/intraday reclaim at 2444 (~1.51% risk, ~within rv_24h 37/atr scale); stretch target down at 2371 near the 5d-low retest (~1.51% reward, R:R ~1.0). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold + top-trader long lean caps the edge; base bear-flow favors a modest downside grind but expiry risk is real given ER near zero.
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