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ETHUSD short — 20 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,591.9 and stopped out at 2,635.5 after 13.9 hours, closing at -1.68%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-20 02:45 |
| Entry | 2,591.9 |
| Stop-loss | 2,635.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,555.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,531 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.40 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,635.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.68% |
| Time open | 13.9 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h/4h EMA bull-aligned but 5m/15m mixed/bear (alignment 0/4, mtf mixed), 1h ADX 41.4 slope -6.5 (strong but fading), ER-10 0.83 but ER-30 0.21 (recent clean but longer-horizon nets nowhere), choppiness 36 (trending edge), Hurst 0.48 (near random-walk), HMM calm 0.999 — a maturing 4h uptrend that has rolled over into a sharp short-TF flush. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short — fresh -1.44% 4h / -1.74% 12h momentum, OI collapsing (oi_5m_z -3.74, oi_15m_z -3.85, momentum accelerating_down), taker ratio 0.94 sub-1, funding still elevated (z +1.23) leaving longs to unwind. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: the flow cluster is the edge — aggressive OI unwind (accelerating_down, agg_oi -1.87%) with sub-1 taker flow and fading ADX signals longs bailing into the drop; this is countertrend to the 4h stack but the short-TF stack (5m bear, 15m oversold RSI 20/26) confirms the active leg is down. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold 5m/15m RSI (20/26) plus top-trader pos ratio 1.65 long could snap a mean-reversion bounce off the recent low, invalidating short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2591.88; stop above the recent intraday swing at 2635 (~1.66% / ~0.5-0.6x the 24h range, structural invalidation); target down at 2531 (~2.34%, r:r ~1.4, a reachable structural level given 2.28% avg 24h traversal, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold conditions temper follow-through, so meaningful bounce/expire probability.
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