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ETHUSD short — 24 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,659.3 and stopped out at 2,691.5 after 1.4 hours, closing at -1.21%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-24 14:53 |
| Entry | 2,659.3 |
| Stop-loss | 2,691.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,635.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,620 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.22 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,691.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.21% |
| Time open | 1.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull-aligned but 1h/5m mixed and 15m bear (alignment 0/4, mtf mixed, regime transitional); 1h ADX 26 slope -2.5 (fading), ER-10 0.21 / ER-30 0.27 (path nets little), choppiness 57 (mid-high), Hurst 0.59, HMM calm 1.0 — a stalling transitional tape, not a clean trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided but modest short lean — recent net moves negative (-0.9% 12h, -0.6% 24h), oi_change -2.6% with decelerating momentum (position unwind), agg OI -1.6%; offsetting bull tells are 4h EMA, taker 1.30 buy-skew this hour, top-trader pos ratio 1.55 long. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: this asset's recent track record is a string of profitable shorts on exactly this "maturing 4h uptrend rolling into short-TF weakness + OI unwind" pattern; the 15m bear-align + declining OI + fading ADX favor a continuation lower rather than a fresh leg up. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the fresh 1h taker buy skew (1.30) plus top-trader longs (1.55) could reclaim the short-TF EMAs and resume the 4h uptrend — a 1h close back above ~2685 invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2659.33; stop above the recent 1h swing/EMA reclaim at 2691.5 (~1.21% risk, within rv/atr band); stretch target 2620 (~1.48% reward, R:R ~1.22) at the 5d-low structural zone reachable within 24h. 6. EXPECTATION: modest edge, mixed regime — p_tp1 44, p_sl 38, p_expire 18.
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