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ETHUSD short — 28 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,681 and stopped out at 2,724.5 after 20 hours, closing at -1.62%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-28 12:23 |
| Entry | 2,681 |
| Stop-loss | 2,724.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,643.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,618 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.45 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,724.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.62% |
| Time open | 20 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull-aligned but 1h/15m bear, 5m mixed (alignment 0/4, mtf mixed, regime bear_trend); 1h ADX 22.3 slope -0.66 (weak trend fading), ER-10 0.37 / ER-30 0.11 (path nets nowhere), choppiness 51 (mid), Hurst 0.54, HMM calm 1.0 — a choppy, slightly-heavy tape with no clean trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — net_move -0.93% 24h, 15m/1h EMAs bear-aligned, but near-term 4h momentum flipped positive (+1.19%) and taker ratio 1.19 shows fresh buying, so this is a bounce inside a heavier structure. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: short — deeply negative funding (delta -0.081%, funding_z -1.93, agg_funding_z -1.70) shows persistent short-side positioning, OI declining (-2.5% 24h, decelerating, oi_z negative) as price bleeds, and lower-TF EMAs bear-aligned; the 4h bounce is counter-trend and taker buying into overbought 15m RSI 70 looks like a fade opportunity back toward the 5d low. 4. PRE-MORTEM: negative funding is itself fuel for a short-squeeze, and the +1.19% 4h push with taker 1.19 could extend through the 5d high (-1.33% away) invalidating the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2681.02; stop above the 5d-high shelf and recent swing at 2724 (~1.6%, near rv-scaled range); take_profit_1 at 2618 toward the 5d-low zone, ~2.35% down, R:R ~1.45x, inside clamps and reachable given avg 24h traversal 1.55% + p90 6.5%. 6. EXPECTATION: choppy tape, thin edge — p_tp1 40 / p_sl 34 / p_expire 26.
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