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ETHUSD short — 28 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,671.2 and hit its target at 2,650.7 after 42 minutes, closing at +0.77%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-28 01:08 |
| Entry | 2,671.2 |
| Stop-loss | 2,699.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,650.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,637 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,650.7 |
| Realized P&L | +0.77% |
| Time open | 42 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h EMA bull-aligned but 1h mixed, 15m/5m bear (alignment 2/4, mtf mixed, regime chop_high_vol); 1h ADX 12.2 slope -0.93 (deep chop, fading), ER-10 0.26 / ER-30 0.07 (path nets nowhere), choppiness 54 (mid-high), Hurst 0.54, HMM calm 1.0 — a choppy, slightly-heavy tape with no clean trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — near-term momentum negative (net -0.44% 4h, -1.38% 12h, -1.09% 24h), OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -1.18, oi_15m_z -1.40, agg OI -0.32%) confirming positions bleeding out on weakness, taker ratio 0.965 sub-1, price sitting -3.9% under 5d high near the mid of range. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow/OI cluster is the strongest edge — accelerating_down OI with sub-1 taker flow and negative 12h net move points to continued grind lower toward 5d/20d low; short-TF EMAs bear-aligned align with this. Counter-lean: top-traders lean long (pos_ratio 1.65) but their ratio is fading (-0.0005 4h chg), and 4h EMA still bull — so this is a low-conviction fade of a stalling tape, not a clean trend. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a reclaim back above ~2685 with taker flow flipping >1 would invalidate the down-drift and put the 4h bull structure back in control. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2671.19; stop_loss 2699.5 above the 4h-bull reclaim zone (~1.06% risk, within rv_24h); take_profit_1 2637.0 at the 5d-low area (~1.28% reward, R:R ~1.2, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: chop regime with thin edge — p_tp1 41, p_sl 37, p_expire 22.
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