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ETHUSD short — 29 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,675.1 and stopped out at 2,718.5 after 21.1 hours, closing at -1.62%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-29 15:23 |
| Entry | 2,675.1 |
| Stop-loss | 2,718.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,648.7 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,631 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.02 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,718.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.62% |
| Time open | 21.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h/15m EMA bull-aligned but 1h/5m mixed (alignment 2/4, mtf mixed, transitional); 1h ADX 18.3 slope -0.31 (weak, fading), ADX-20 13.3, ER-10 0.008 / ER-30 0.10 (path nets nowhere), choppiness 43 (mid), Hurst 0.46 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 1.0 — a choppy, drifting tape with no clean trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — the recent -2.0% 4h impulse, taker ratio 0.91 (sellers pressing), RSI oversold on 5m/15m signals near-term selling exhaustion but momentum still points down; however OI accelerating_up + top-trader pos ratio 1.50 lean long. Genuinely two-sided but near-term momentum + taker flow tip short, matching the asset's own recent win pattern (multiple short wins in this exact regime). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is near-term flow/momentum — net_move -2.0% 4h with taker 0.91 and funding elevated (z 1.42, agg z 1.53, crowded-long unwinding risk); crowded longs into a fading-ADX chop tend to bleed, and Drishti's own ETH short calls in this regime have won repeatedly. Counter-trend to the soft 4h bull stack but the 1h has already rolled mixed. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 15m/5m deep oversold (RSI 18-25) + top-trader longs 1.50 could snap price back up above 2,700 reclaiming the 4h EMA — that invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the 5d-high proximity / reclaim zone at 2,718 (~1.6% = within rv/atr range); entry 2,675.14; target the 5d-low retest at 2,631, ~1.65% down, R:R ~1.02, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: choppy oversold tape caps directional follow-through, so meaningful expire probability.
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