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ETHUSD short — 30 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,675 and stopped out at 2,708.5 after 14.2 hours, closing at -1.25%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-30 14:35 |
| Entry | 2,675 |
| Stop-loss | 2,708.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,650.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,634 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,708.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.25% |
| Time open | 14.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: alignment 2/4 mixed, regime transitional; 1h ADX 15.5 slope +2.98 (deep chop trying to build), ER-10 0.04 / ER-30 0.11 (path nets nowhere), choppiness 48 (mid), Hurst 0.31 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 1.0 — a choppy, mildly-heavy tape with negative near-term momentum. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — net_move_4h -0.74% and net_move_24h -1.31% show current downdraft, price rolling off 5d high (-2.2%) with taker 1h 0.95 (sell-tilted); this asset's recent wins were all short-side fades of chop. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: near-term momentum + mean-reverting Hurst 0.31 favor continued fade lower within chop; counterweight is top_trader_pos_ratio 1.61 (long-lean) and OI accelerating_up + agg_oi +0.97% (positions building into a slide = potential long-squeeze fuel down). 4. PRE-MORTEM: a reclaim of 2,700 (the 5d-high area) with 1h ema bull-aligning would invalidate the short and confirm bulls defending. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2,675.04; stop above the recent structure/5d-high shelf at 2,708.5 (~1.25% ≈ within rv/atr range); target the 5d-low retest zone at 2,634.0 (~1.53% down), R:R ~1.22. 6. EXPECTATION: choppy tape, thin edge — p_tp1 42, p_sl 36, p_expire 22.
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