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ETHUSD short — 1 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,689.5 and stopped out at 2,721.4 after 19.2 hours, closing at -1.19%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-01 07:35 |
| Entry | 2,689.5 |
| Stop-loss | 2,721.4 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,666.3 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,650.8 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.21 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,721.4 |
| Realized P&L | -1.19% |
| Time open | 19.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 4h/15m/5m EMA bull-aligned but 1h mixed (mtf labeled mixed, regime transitional); 1h ADX 16.6 slope +2.0, ADX-20 12.0, ER-10 0.09 / ER-30 0.06 (path nets nowhere), choppiness 48 (mid), Hurst 0.32 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 1.0 — a choppy, slightly-heavy tape with a mean-reverting bias and no clean trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — near-term momentum has rolled over (net_move_4h -0.22%, latest taker ratio 0.745 heavily sell-side) despite a weak 12h/24h positive drift, and the dominant historical ETH edge in this exact chop_high_vol/transitional regime has been fading fresh up-impulses (prior shorts won +0.82/+0.77/+0.83%). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Hurst 0.32 mean-reversion + choppy ER near zero + a fresh latest-hour taker sell flush (0.745) argue the recent 12h bounce is overextending into resistance; price only -1.69% from 5d high with ETF outflows ($59.6M eth) and top-trader pos ratio slipping (4h chg -0.055) — flow is unwinding longs into the pop. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h EMA stack is bull-aligned and funding/OI accelerating_up — a reclaim of the 5d high (~2,735) with sustained taker buying would invalidate the fade and trend higher. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2,689.52; stop 2,721.40 just beyond the recent swing/5d-high approach (~1.19% risk, within 24h ATR band); target 2,650.80 at the 20d-low side support zone (~1.44% reward, R:R ~1.2, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: mean-reversion edge is real but modest in a transitional tape with upside EMA pull.
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