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ETHUSD short — 2 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,660.6 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 2,683.5 with a price move of -0.86%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-02 18:50 |
| Entry | 2,660.6 |
| Stop-loss | 2,695.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,637.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,622 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.11 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 2,683.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.86% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF alignment 0/4 (mixed) — 1h/4h EMA bull-aligned but 5m bear and 15m mixed; 1h ADX 26.3 with slope -3.9 (fading), ADX-20 19.2, ER-30 0.12, choppiness 37.3, Hurst 0.20 (strongly mean-reverting), HMM calm — a bull-labeled but decaying tape with a fresh downside impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — net 4h -1.81%, 12h -2.53%, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -1.72, oi_15m_z -1.83, agg_oi -1.49%), taker 1h 0.77 (sell-heavy, last 3 buckets all <0.86). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow — OI bleeding on an accelerating_down state while takers sell and funding negative/unwinding, i.e. longs capitulating into the drop; this aligns with the near-term bearish momentum even against the stale 1h/4h bull EMA label. 4. PRE-MORTEM: Hurst 0.20 and 15m RSI 23 (deep oversold) + z-score -1.37 flag a mean-reversion bounce — a reclaim of 2690 would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2660.61; stop above the 2690 reclaim level at 2695.50 (dist ~1.31%, inside the ~45% rv_24h daily range); take_profit_1 at 2622.00, the next structural shelf toward the 5d low, ~1.45% below entry giving R:R ~1.1. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold condition caps downside follow-through, so I weight a meaningful bounce/expire chance.
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