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ETHUSD short — 5 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,683.1 and stopped out at 2,718.4 after 5.7 hours, closing at -1.31%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-05 16:20 |
| Entry | 2,683.1 |
| Stop-loss | 2,718.4 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,656.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,638.3 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.27 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,718.4 |
| Realized P&L | -1.31% |
| Time open | 5.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed (0/4), 1h/4h EMA bull-aligned but 5m bear and 15m mixed; 1h ADX 20.8 slope -2.35 (fading), ER-30 0.088, choppiness 54.9, Hurst 0.33 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — a stalling bull-labeled structure with a fresh downside impulse. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — net_move_4h -0.99%, net_move_24h -0.70%, taker_1h 0.81 (sell-heavy), oi_5m_z -1.39 and oi_momentum decelerating; near-term flow leans down even as higher-TF EMA stays bull. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow — current sell-tilted takers (0.81), OI contracting (oi_5m_z -1.39, decelerating) and a live -0.99% 4h impulse into a mean-reverting, non-trending tape; this is a counter-trend fade of a stalling bull with no reclaim evidence, so I keep conviction modest. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price reclaims the 1h bull EMA stack with the 5m RSI 28 oversold bounce (short-covering) pushing back above ~2700, invalidating the down lean. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2683.13; stop above the recent swing/EMA reclaim at 2718.4 (~1.31% / ~1.4x atr_pct_1h, within 24h range); target the 5d_low area ~2638 (~1.68% down), R:R ~1.27 inside the 1.5x clamp. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold 5m RSI and bull higher-TF EMA cap downside follow-through, so meaningful expire/reversal risk.
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