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ETHUSD short — 7 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,589.5 and hit its target at 2,558.6 after 2.7 hours, closing at +1.19%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-07 10:20 |
| Entry | 2,589.5 |
| Stop-loss | 2,628 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,558.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,538 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.34 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,558.6 |
| Realized P&L | +1.19% |
| Time open | 2.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Clean bear impulse — 1h/15m/5m EMA bear-aligned, 1h ADX 46.6 with +6.2 slope (trend strengthening), choppiness 23.4 (strongly trending), ER-10 0.84 (clean one-way path), price at fresh 5d/20d/90d low (dist +0.00 to lows), z_score -3.82 (deeply extended down). 2. LEAN CHECK: clear short lean on momentum, but 1h RSI 18.7 oversold, z -3.82 and ETF outflow already in — extension is deep; still the trend/flow favor continuation over a bounce without reclaim. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — net_move_4h -1.05% / 24h -4.55%, taker_1h 0.77 (sell-heavy), funding deeply negative (z -1.89, agg_z -1.72), ETH ETF $202M outflow — a strengthening down-trend making fresh lows with no reclaim attempt. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h RSI 18.7 + z -3.82 are extreme oversold; a sharp reflex bounce reclaiming ~2620 would invalidate the continuation and spring shorts. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2589.52, stop 2628.0 above the recent breakdown shelf (~1.49% stop, ~0.4x of 46% rv — tight for the oversold reflex risk), target 2538.0 toward next structural extension (~2.0% / ~1.3x stop, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: strong trend but deep oversold caps follow-through — p_tp1 46, p_sl 36, p_expire 18.
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