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ETHUSD short — 22 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,405.7 and hit its target at 2,367 after 8.1 hours, closing at +1.61%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-22 08:39 |
| Entry | 2,405.7 |
| Stop-loss | 2,436 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,382.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,367 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.28 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 2,367 |
| Realized P&L | +1.61% |
| Time open | 8.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Bear-leaning transitional — mtf_alignment 2/4 (5m & 4h bear_aligned, 15m mixed, only 1h bull_aligned), 1h ADX 30.9 slope +1.14 (mildly strengthening), choppiness 29.3 (trending-ish), ER-30 0.18 and Hurst 0.44 (longer path mean-reverts), HMM calm hi-conf; fresh momentum negative all horizons (-1.66%/4h, -3.43%/12h, -1.91%/24h). 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean — fresh accelerating downside push, 4h/5m bear EMA, OI unwinding into the fall. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — oi_momentum_state accelerating_down, oi_5m_z -1.87 and 15m_z -1.78 (longs capitulating), agg_oi_24h_delta -3.63, all synced with -3.43% 12h move = trend-aligned downside continuation; this exact setup won +1.05% on this asset recently. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold RSI (5m 19, 15m 21, 1h 28) risks a sharp mean-reversion bounce — if price reclaims ~2430 the short invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2405.74, stop_loss 2436.0 (above intraday reclaim/5m EMA cap, ~1.26% = within rv band), take_profit_1 2367.0 (toward 5d_low region, ~1.61% below = R:R ~1.28, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold risks a bounce, so meaningful p_expire.
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