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ETHUSD short — 27 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,313.4 and stopped out at 2,342 after 11.4 hours, closing at -1.23%.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-27 03:57 |
| Entry | 2,313.4 |
| Stop-loss | 2,342 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,292.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,278 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.24 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 2,342 |
| Realized P&L | -1.23% |
| Time open | 11.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Clean bear trend — mtf_alignment 4/4 full_bearish (5m/15m/1h/4h all bear EMA), 1h ADX 31.4 (genuine trend) though slope -2.1 (fading), 4h ADX 38.2, choppiness 59.1 (mid/chop-leaning), ER-30 0.08 (longer path nets nowhere), Hurst 0.41 mean-reverting, HMM calm hi-conf. 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean — full bearish stack, accelerating_down OI momentum, and fresh negative 4h/12h momentum (-0.43%/-0.60%). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: HTF trend fully bearish across all four TFs with oi_momentum accelerating_down and ETH ETF $88.6M net OUTFLOW yesterday vs BTC inflow — macro flow against ETH; price pinned near 5d/20d low (+0.50% off), z-score -1.61. 4. PRE-MORTEM: oversold stretch (z -1.6, right on 90d low) with taker 0.74 bearish exhaustion and ADX slope fading could trigger a mean-reversion bounce reclaiming the 5d-low zone — that invalidates continuation. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 2313.45, stop above recent swing/near reclaim at 2342.0 (dist ~1.23%, ~0.5x rv range, beyond invalidation), target down at 2278.0 (dist ~1.53%, R:R ~1.24) at the next structural leg below the 90d low — within clamps and 24h reach given avg 24h traversal 1.46%. 6. EXPECTATION: bear trend firm but stretched/fading, so moderate edge.
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