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ETHUSD short — 6 Nov 2026 (expired)
This short on ETHUSD entered at 2,229.2 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 2,237.2 with a price move of -0.36%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | ETHUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-11-06 16:23 |
| Entry | 2,229.2 |
| Stop-loss | 2,268 |
| Take-profit 1 | 2,202.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 2,184 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.16 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 2,237.2 |
| Realized P&L | -0.36% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: Clean bear trend — mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4, 1h ADX 51.7 (very strong) slope +0.06, ADX-20 41.9, 1h RSI 34, Hurst 0.57 (trending), HMM calm hi-conf; macro risk-off (SPX -4.4%, VIX +70%, total mcap -7.9%, Fear 28). 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT — every timeframe's EMA stack is bear-aligned, taker ratio 0.885 (sell-skewed), agg OI -0.48% (longs bleeding), only countered by top-traders net long (contrarian) and a flat near-term ER-10. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: Trend-aligned short — the strongest cluster is HTF trend (full_bearish 4/4 + ADX 51.7) reinforced by flow (taker 0.885, oi_change -0.27%, agg_oi -0.48%) and a risk-off macro tailwind; price sits -8.5% off 5d high and z -1.03, momentum net -1.6%/24h. 4. PRE-MORTEM: Price is only +0.16% off its 5d low — a bounce/reclaim off that low with top-traders (pos ratio 2.0) defending would invalidate the continuation. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: Entry 2229.16; stop above recent swing at 2268.0 (~1.74% / ~0.9x the 24h range of 2.69%, beyond the near-term invalidation); stretch TP at 2184.0 (~2.02% below, R:R ~1.16, inside clamps) targeting a break of the 5d low. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned continuation with sell flow, but price near a support and top-traders long — honest split.
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