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HYPEUSD short — 31 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on HYPEUSD entered at 87.2562 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 87.405 with a price move of -0.17%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | HYPEUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-31 08:27 |
| Entry | 87.2562 |
| Stop-loss | 89.95 |
| Take-profit 1 | 85.2725 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 83.95 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 87.405 |
| Realized P&L | -0.17% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment 0/4 (5m bear, 15m mixed, 1h bull, 4h mixed), ADX-1h only 15.2 (chop threshold), ER-30 0.19 and choppiness 46.8 (noisy/transitional), Hurst ~0.52, HMM calm — a rolled-over down-leg, net -1.5% 4h / -5.0% 24h, RV at 77-86th pctile. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT — momentum is clearly down, OI collapsing on the decline (deleveraging), and all prior HYPE shorts in this rolled-over profile won while longs in chop all lost (5/5 same-regime longs stopped). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: flow cluster — oi_change -5.6% 24h, agg_oi -7.0%, oi_5m_z -2.47 accelerating_down, taker ratio 0.786 (sellers dominating last hour), net move negative across 4h/12h/24h; the trend-fade down-leg is intact and OI is leaving as price falls. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h EMA still bull_aligned and top-trader pos ratio 2.29 (heavy long) — a reclaim of ~$89.5 would signal the dip is being bought and invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 87.26, stop above the invalidation/1h EMA reclaim at 89.95 (dist ~3.1%, within 24h RV range ~3.6%), take_profit_1 at 83.95 toward the 5d-low zone (dist ~3.8%, R:R ~1.23, under 4% clamp). 6. EXPECTATION: downtrend with falling OI favors continuation but counter-trend top-trader longs and low ADX add chop risk.
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