PAXGUSD long — 24 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on PAXGUSD entered at 4,624.1 and stopped out at 4,586.9 after 18 minutes, closing at -0.81%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-24 00:09 |
| Entry | 4,624.1 |
| Stop-loss | 4,586.9 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,648.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,664.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.08 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,586.9 |
| Realized P&L | -0.81% |
| Time open | 18 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bullish 4/4 MTF alignment, all EMA stacks bull_aligned, 1h ADX 24.8 but fading (-3.19 slope), 4h ADX 47.2 strong, choppiness 41.9 (neutral-lean-trending), ER-10 0.55 moderate, Hurst 0.59 persistent, HMM calm full-confidence — a genuine macro gold uptrend, though intraday momentum is cooling at fresh highs. 2. LEAN CHECK: clearly leans long — price at 5d/20d/90d highs, macro gold +3.64% 1d / +6.85% 5d, spot ref +0.75%, top-trader pos ratio 2.60 heavily long, taker 1.47 buy-skewed. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend + macro — the higher-TF stack is fully bull-aligned and the underlying gold move is exceptionally strong (+6.85% 5d), with top-traders positioned long; this is the same setup that has produced a 74.6% win rate on this asset. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI is overbought across all TFs (4h 78.5, 1h 72.5), z-score +1.66, OI is accelerating_down (oi z -2.7, agg OI -1.7%) — a momentum divergence that warns of a pullback/exhaustion near the top. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4624.14; stop 4586.90 below recent intraday structure (~0.81% risk, roughly 0.8x the 0.93% typical 24h traversal — appropriate for low-vol gold); stretch TP 4664.50 (+0.87%, R:R ~1.08) at a modest new-high extension, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: trend intact but overbought/OI-fading tempers upside — win rate history strong but momentum cooling.
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