PAXGUSD long — 25 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on PAXGUSD entered at 4,678.2 and stopped out at 4,645 after 1.8 hours, closing at -0.71%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-25 00:13 |
| Entry | 4,678.2 |
| Stop-loss | 4,645 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,704.2 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,721.5 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.31 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,645 |
| Realized P&L | -0.71% |
| Time open | 1.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: full_bullish 4/4 MTF alignment, all EMA stacks bull_aligned, 1h ADX 35.5 rising (+1.22 slope), 4h ADX 53.0 very strong, Hurst 0.56 persistent, HMM calm full-confidence — a genuine, strengthening macro gold uptrend at fresh 5d/20d/90d highs. 2. LEAN CHECK: clearly leans long — macro gold +1.37% 1d / +6.10% 5d, spot +1.09% 24h, price at fresh highs with OI accelerating_up. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: three confirming clusters — HTF trend (4/4 alignment, strong ADX), flow (OI +3.35% 24h accelerating_up, taker 1.35, top-trader pos ratio 2.96 long), and macro tailwind (gold +6.1% 5d, DXY soft -0.67% 5d) — all trend-aligned long. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI overbought across all TFs (4h 83.5, z-score +1.77) — a mean-reversion pullback from stretched highs is the main risk, funding z +1.01 shows mild crowding. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4678.18; stop 4645.0 below recent intraday structure (~0.71%, ~0.4x the 1.79% avg daily range, honest invalidation of the up-leg); take_profit_1 4721.5 stretch (~0.93%, RR ~1.3, within clamps, a reachable extension given 1.05% typical 24h traversal and fresh-high momentum). 6. EXPECTATION: gold trend intact but overbought and low intraday traversal caps quick continuation — p_tp1 47, p_sl 30, p_expire 23.
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