PAXGUSD long — 1 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on PAXGUSD entered at 4,457 and stopped out at 4,410.5 after 7.7 hours, closing at -1.04%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-01 00:23 |
| Entry | 4,457 |
| Stop-loss | 4,410.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,487.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,508 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.10 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,410.5 |
| Realized P&L | -1.04% |
| Time open | 7.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h EMA bear_aligned but 4h/15m mixed and 5m bull, alignment 0/4, regime tagged bear_trend, ADX 22.9 (slope -4.7 fading), choppiness 57.3 (upper-neutral), ER-10 0.42 / ER-30 0.06 (nets nowhere), Hurst 0.45, HMM calm — a macro gold pullback that has stalled into chop, downtrend momentum clearly fading. 2. LEAN CHECK: modestly two-sided, but leans long — price sits at 5d/20d/90d lows (+0.9% off low), rolling z -1.22 (stretched below mean), gold macro +0.38% 1d and spot +0.084%, taker 1.28 buy-tilt, top-trader pos ratio 2.68 heavily long, net_move +0.20% 4h turning up. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: mean-reversion long off a compressed low — the strongest cluster is positioning/structure (deeply below 20d mean at the 20d low with a fading bear ADX and buyer-tilted takers), aided by a green macro-gold read; the intraday downtrend that recent shorts rode is losing its slope. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a fresh break below the 5d/90d low (~4413) with expanding OI-down would invalidate — the bear trend resuming rather than mean-reverting. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4456.98, stop below the 20d/90d low structure at 4410.5 (~1.04% risk, within gold's ~1.5% daily range), take_profit_1 at 4508.0 (+1.14%, ~1.1x the stop distance, R:R ~1.1, reachable within 24h given avg 24h move ~0.78% and p90 range 3.3%). 6. EXPECTATION: gold mean-reversion base rate with fading downtrend but low ER — p_tp1 44, p_sl 34, p_expire 22.
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