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PAXGUSD long — 11 Sep 2026 (expired)
This long on PAXGUSD entered at 4,368.5 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 4,353.2 with a price move of -0.35%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-11 12:42 |
| Entry | 4,368.5 |
| Stop-loss | 4,314 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,404.8 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,429 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.11 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 4,353.2 |
| Realized P&L | -0.35% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 with 1h+4h both bear_aligned, 1h ADX 32.4 slope -0.47 (genuine trend but fading), choppiness 55.6 neutral, ER-10 0.29 / ER-30 0.18 noisy path, Hurst 0.47, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a calm gold down-leg near-term losing momentum, price sitting -1.14 z-score below the 20d mean. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans modestly long as a mean-reversion — price is z=-1.14, only +1.24% off 5d/20d/90d low, 4h RSI 47 (not oversold), taker ratio 1h 0.75 is sell-heavy but net_move_4h +0.33% and net_24h +0.53% are actually positive (gold spot +0.38%), agg funding z +0.82 and top-trader pos ratio 2.38 long — buyers positioned, price stretched low. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is positioning/structure — deep negative rolling z-score with proximity to a 90d-support floor and positive net moves over 4h/24h suggests the bear leg is exhausting and reverting; macro gold spot mildly positive supports upside. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a fresh break below the 5d/90d low (~4315) with OI accelerating down again invalidates the reversion. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the 90d-low floor at 4314 (~1.25% risk, within gold's rv/atr range given 4h atr 0.80%), stretch target 4429 (~1.4% up, ~1.15x risk) toward the 5d-high region. 6. EXPECTATION: reversion in low-vol gold near support is real but the bear MTF resists — p_tp1 41 / p_sl 36 / p_expire 23.
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