PAXGUSD short — 1 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,399.8 and hit its target at 4,379.5 after 14 minutes, closing at +0.46%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-01 08:18 |
| Entry | 4,399.8 |
| Stop-loss | 4,432.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,379.5 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,366 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.03 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 4,379.5 |
| Realized P&L | +0.46% |
| Time open | 14 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 5m/15m/1h EMAs bear_aligned (4h mixed), regime bear_trend, ADX 20.6 1h (slope +1.04, mildly strengthening) with 4h ADX 48, choppiness 44.4 (trending edge), ER-10 0.52/ER-30 0.09, Hurst 0.44, HMM calm — a macro gold pullback with an intact intraday downtrend but somewhat noisy path. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans short — macro gold spot -0.95% 1d, net_move -0.64% 4h / -1.11% 12h, agg OI -0.38% 24h, RSI oversold across TFs at 5d/20d/90d lows. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — bear EMA stack on the fast TFs plus falling macro gold and negative 4h/12h momentum; this asset's track record heavily favors shorts (three recent wins all short). 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI is deeply oversold (28-32) at the 20d z of -1.82 and price sitting exactly on 5d/20d/90d lows with taker_ratio 0.74 — a snap-back bounce/reclaim would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent intraday swing/1h structure at 4432 (~0.73% ≈ 0.9x rv/atr band); target the next structural extension at 4372 (~0.63%, R:R ~0.86)... adjust TP to 4368 for R:R ~1.0 within reachable 24h span (avg 24h move 0.76%). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold at lows tempers downside conviction; honest split with meaningful expire probability.
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