PAXGUSD short — 5 Sep 2026 (expired)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,428 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 4,426.9 with a price move of +0.02%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-05 14:46 |
| Entry | 4,428 |
| Stop-loss | 4,460 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,407.6 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,394 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.06 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 4,426.9 |
| Realized P&L | +0.02% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed but 5m/15m/1h all bear_aligned (4h mixed), regime bear_trend, 1h ADX 33.9 slope slightly negative (firm but not strengthening), choppiness 53.5 (neutral), ER-10 0.37/ER-30 0.28 (noisy), Hurst 0.55 mild-persistence, HMM calm — a shallow macro gold pullback with intraday downside bias but low realized vol (RV pctile 17.9%). 2. LEAN CHECK: leans short — 5m/15m/1h EMAs bear-stacked, net_move -0.10% 4h / -0.13% 12h, macro gold -1.38% 1d / -1.08% 5d, DXY firm +0.16%, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -3.1) — trend-aligned short, though top-traders remain heavily long (2.33 pos ratio) as a counter. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: bear EMA stack across 5m/15m/1h plus a soft macro gold tape (gold spot down five days, DXY firm) is the strongest cluster and it is trend-aligned to the downside. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 5m RSI at 21.6 is deeply oversold and top-traders are aggressively long — a mean-reversion bounce off the 5d-low proximity (only +2.9% above it, but -1.5% from 5d high) would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4427.97; stop above the recent 1h consolidation / invalidation at 4460.0 (~0.72% risk, within gold's ~1.7-1.9% daily range and ~1x RV); target the stretch down toward 4394.0 (~0.77% reward, R:R ~1.05, inside clamps) — a structural pullback level reachable within 24h. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold short-TF RSI and long top-traders cap downside conviction and low RV raises expire odds; p_tp1 41 / p_sl 36 / p_expire 23.
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