PAXGUSD short — 7 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,392.5 and stopped out at 4,425 after 22.3 hours, closing at -0.74%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-07 01:25 |
| Entry | 4,392.5 |
| Stop-loss | 4,425 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,372.4 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,359 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.03 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,425 |
| Realized P&L | -0.74% |
| Time open | 22.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed (4/4 votes bearish but 4h EMA mixed), regime bear_trend, 1h ADX 24.6 slope +0.96 (strengthening), choppiness 37.8 (trending edge), ER-10 0.69 clean / ER-30 0.53 moderate, Hurst 0.56 mild-persistent, HMM calm — a clean, strengthening intraday down-leg in gold. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans short — macro gold spot -0.75% 24h, net_move -0.60% 4h / -0.82% 24h, OI accelerating_down (oi_15m_z -2.10) with agg OI -0.58%, all sub-4h EMAs bear_aligned. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — bear EMA stack across 5m/15m/1h with rising ADX and clean ER-10 0.69 confirms an active down-leg; macro DXY firm (+0.16% 1d) and us10y up +0.46% pressure gold. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI is deeply oversold (5m 23.5 / 15m 19.3 / 1h 19.8) and top-trader pos ratio 2.40 heavily long — a mean-reversion bounce off oversold could invalidate; the recent same-regime record is 1-2-2 mixed. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4392.50; stop above the 4h/recent structure at 4425.0 (~0.74% wide, within gold's rv/atr band and above the intraday reclaim shelf); target 4359.0 stretch toward the intraday low extension (~0.76% / RR ~1.02), reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal ~0.94%. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold RSI and crowded top-trader longs temper the short; honest distribution below.
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