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PAXGUSD short — 10 Sep 2026 (stopped out)

This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,321.9 and stopped out at 4,358 after 11 hours, closing at -0.84%.

AssetPAXGUSD
Directionshort
Issued (UTC)2026-09-10 19:03
Entry4,321.9
Stop-loss4,358
Take-profit 14,298.6
Take-profit 2 (stretch)4,283
Reward:risk at entry1.08
Outcomestopped out
Close price4,358
Realized P&L-0.84%
Time open11 hours

What the model saw at issue time

AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.

1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4 (5m/15m/1h/4h all bear_aligned), 1h ADX 32.1 slope +6.9 (genuine trend strengthening), choppiness 37.8 (trending edge), ER-10 0.55 clean short-run, Hurst 0.47 neutral, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a calm but strengthening gold down-leg. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans short — net_move_pct_4h -0.99%, net_12h -2.0%, net_24h -1.73%, gold spot -1.69% 24h, OI accelerating_down with oi_z ~-1.6. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend + fresh momentum — full_bearish stack with strengthening ADX and accelerating_down OI is a live down-leg, matching the winning short pattern seen repeatedly on this asset. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI is deeply oversold across all TFs (5m 17, 15m 24, 1h 30) and rolling_z -2.22 at the 5d/20d low — a mean-reversion bounce is the clear risk that would invalidate a fresh short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4321.89; stop above the recent minor structure / oversold-bounce room at 4358.0 (~0.84% ≈ ~0.5x rv_24h/atr band, honest invalidation); take_profit_1 stretch at 4283.0 (~0.90% below, R:R ~1.08, inside 4% clamp, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 0.84% and a live down-leg). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold condition caps downside follow-through despite strong trend, so meaningful expire/bounce risk.

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