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PAXGUSD short — 14 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,292.6 and hit its target at 4,273 after 12.3 hours, closing at +0.46%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-14 19:54 |
| Entry | 4,292.6 |
| Stop-loss | 4,324 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,273 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,260 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.04 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 4,273 |
| Realized P&L | +0.46% |
| Time open | 12.3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4 (5m/15m/1h/4h all bear_aligned), 1h ADX 31.5 but slope -2.3 (genuine trend, mildly fading), choppiness 48.3 neutral, ER-10 0.04 very noisy / ER-30 0.25 moderate, Hurst 0.40 mild mean-revert, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a calm gold down-leg, strong but decelerating. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans short — full bearish stack, net_move_pct_24h -1.30%, gold spot -1.40% 24h, price pinned near 5d/20d/90d lows (+0.25% off low), macro DXY +0.36%/us10y +0.63% (gold headwind). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — full 4/4 bearish MTF with ADX>30 and gold spot leading lower; rolling_z_20d -2.30 confirms an active down-leg not yet reversed. 4. PRE-MORTEM: RSI oversold (5m 22.6, 4h 26.6) + z -2.30 + ADX slope fading + taker 1h 0.66 buy-tilted mark a stretched down-leg ripe for a mean-revert bounce that stops a fresh short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent 4h swing / prior consolidation at 4324 (~0.73% above mark, ~0.4x rv), target the 5d/90d low zone at 4268 (~0.57% below), R:R ~0.77 — widen TP to hold R:R>=1.0: TP 4260 = ~0.76% (RR ~1.05); reachable within 24h given avg_move_24h 0.60% and this is a trending push. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold stretch caps upside on the stretch target so p_expire meaningful.
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