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PAXGUSD short — 15 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,278.3 and stopped out at 4,308.5 after 9.8 hours, closing at -0.71%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-15 08:28 |
| Entry | 4,278.3 |
| Stop-loss | 4,308.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,257.1 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,243 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.17 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,308.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.71% |
| Time open | 9.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4 (5m/15m/1h/4h all bear_aligned), 1h ADX 32.5 slope +2.0 (genuine trend, mildly strengthening), choppiness 48.6 neutral, ER-10 0.30 / ER-30 0.22 noisy path, Hurst 0.39 mild mean-revert, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a calm but persistent gold down-leg. 2. LEAN CHECK: leans short — full bearish stack, net_move_pct_24h -0.82%, gold spot -0.86%/24h and -1.56%/5d, DXY +0.76%/5d headwind, price pinned at 5d/20d/90d lows, rolling_z_20d -2.36. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend cluster + macro cluster align short — full 4/4 bearish EMA stack with rising ADX, and gold spot itself falling with a firming dollar; OI momentum accelerating_down (-0.62% recent half) confirms sellers pressing lows. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 4h RSI 28 oversold + rolling_z -2.36 + at 90d low is exhaustion territory — a mean-revert bounce off the lows would invalidate; taker_buy_sell 0.77 last hour shows some dip-buying. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4278.29; stop above the recent intraday structure at 4308.5 (~0.71% up, ~0.8x the 1.60% avg daily range — sane); stretch target down at 4243.0 (~0.83% down), RR ~1.17, a reachable level given 0.62% typical 24h traversal and momentum already extended. 6. EXPECTATION: trend intact but stretched at lows, so meaningful expire/bounce risk.
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