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PAXGUSD short — 3 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,145.5 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 4,146.4 with a price move of -0.02%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-03 15:05 |
| Entry | 4,145.5 |
| Stop-loss | 4,178 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,126 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,113 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.00 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 4,146.4 |
| Realized P&L | -0.02% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4 (all TFs bear-aligned EMA stacks), but 1h ADX 18.8 slope +1.44 and ADX-20 13.0 (weak/firming near trend floor), choppiness 47.3 neutral, ER-10 0.35 / ER-30 0.24 (noisy nowhere-path), Hurst 0.53, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a calm low-vol gold tape with a clean bearish EMA stack and gold spot soft (-0.31% 24h, -3.68% 5d). 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — every TF bear-aligned, gold spot down and macro soft (gold -0.95% 1d, DXY firm 5d), rolling z -1.14 already stretched below mean, 4h RSI 38 trending-weak. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — full_bearish stack + negative gold spot momentum + accelerating_down OI (oi_momentum_state accelerating_down, oi_15m_z -1.01) says fading conviction into the dip, consistent with continuation lower. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is already z -1.14 and only +0.51% off its 5d/20d low with top-traders very long (pos ratio 3.22) and 1h taker buy ratio 0.78 fading sell pressure — a mean-reversion bounce off the low would invalidate. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4145.51; stop just above recent intraday pivot / mean at 4178 (~0.78% ~ roughly 1x daily range in low-vol gold); take_profit_1 at 4113 (~0.78% below, R:R ~1.0), targeting a push through the 5d low. 6. EXPECTATION: low-vol choppy tape near a floor keeps p_expire meaningful.
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