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PAXGUSD short — 7 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on PAXGUSD entered at 4,099.6 and stopped out at 4,133.5 after 12.4 hours, closing at -0.83%.
| Asset | PAXGUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-07 12:35 |
| Entry | 4,099.6 |
| Stop-loss | 4,133.5 |
| Take-profit 1 | 4,077 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 4,062 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.11 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 4,133.5 |
| Realized P&L | -0.83% |
| Time open | 12.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4 (all TFs bear-aligned EMA), 1h ADX 22.6 slope +4.8 (strengthening), ADX-20 15.8, choppiness 28.5 (trending), ER-10 0.68 (clean recent push), Hurst 0.29 (mean-reverting longer), HMM calm conf 1.0, RV-24h 76th pctile — a calm but genuinely trending gold tape pushing lower with firming ADX. 2. LEAN CHECK: short lean — HTF trend, momentum (net 4h -0.9%, 24h -1.8%), and spot gold -2.07% all point down; the only counter is deeply oversold RSI (5m 19.5, 1h 24.8) and z-score -3.38. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: full_bearish 4/4 EMA stack with ADX firming (+4.8 slope, choppiness 28.5) is the strongest cluster, trend-aligned short; spot gold -2.07% drives the token lower. 4. PRE-MORTEM: extreme oversold (RSI 19.5/24.8, z -3.38, at 20d/90d low) sets up a mean-reversion bounce that stops out the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 4099.57; stop above recent intraday pivot at 4133.5 (~0.83% ~0.4-0.5x RV); stretch target down to 4062.0 (~0.92%, R:R ~1.1, inside clamps) toward prior support given momentum. 6. EXPECTATION: trend firm but oversold is stretched, so bounce risk real — p_tp1 45, p_sl 37, p_expire 18.
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