SLVONUSD long — 30 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This long on SLVONUSD entered at 60.49 and stopped out at 60.07 after 38 minutes, closing at -0.69%.
| Asset | SLVONUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-30 23:08 |
| Entry | 60.49 |
| Stop-loss | 60.07 |
| Take-profit 1 | 60.826 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 61.05 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.33 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 60.07 |
| Realized P&L | -0.69% |
| Time open | 38 minutes |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF labeled bear_trend with 5m/1h bear-aligned (15m/4h mixed), 1h ADX 26.98 rising (+2.79 slope), ADX-20 18.3, ER_10 0.14 / ER_30 0.05 (nets nowhere), choppiness 35.8 (leaning trendy), Hurst 0.37 (mean-reverting), HMM calm conf 1.0 — a low-vol calm tape with a mild bear structural lean but a non-persistent path. 2. LEAN CHECK: two competing forces — bear EMA structure + negative 4h momentum (-0.26%) vs strong bullish positioning (OI accelerating_up, oi z +2.45, top-trader pos ratio 1.68 and rising, taker 1.05); price sits at rolling z-20d -1.49, stretched down toward its 5d/20d/90d low (+0.58% off low) with Hurst mean-reverting — a modest long-reversion lean wins the tiebreak. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: statistically stretched to the downside (z -1.49) pinned near range low with OI accelerating up and top traders positioned long into it; the mean-reverting Hurst + calm regime favors a bounce off the low, consistent with SLVON's recent long-reversion wins from similar setups. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a clean break below the +0.58% 5d/20d/90d low (~60.14) with the bear EMA stack extending would invalidate the reversion. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop below the range low at 60.07 (~0.69% risk, well within the 3.09% avg daily range / rv 15.6); take_profit_1 stretch at 61.05 (~0.93% reward, R:R ~1.35x, inside clamps) targeting mean-reversion back toward the 20d mean. 6. EXPECTATION: mean-reversion edge is real but modest on a choppy tape with SLVON's 54.5% wr and negative avg pnl — p_tp1 44, p_sl 34, p_expire 22.
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