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SLVONUSD short — 7 Aug 2026 (stopped out)

This short on SLVONUSD entered at 56.2958 and stopped out at 56.98 after 4.2 hours, closing at -1.22%.

AssetSLVONUSD
Directionshort
Issued (UTC)2026-08-07 01:42
Entry56.2958
Stop-loss56.98
Take-profit 155.8243
Take-profit 2 (stretch)55.51
Reward:risk at entry1.15
Outcomestopped out
Close price56.98
Realized P&L-1.22%
Time open4.2 hours

What the model saw at issue time

AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.

1. REGIME READ: 1h/4h EMA stacks bull_aligned but 5m/15m mixed (alignment 2/4), 1h ADX 22.3 with negative slope (-3.4, fading), choppiness 61 (range-bound edge), ER_10 0.38 / ER_30 0.006 (path nets nowhere over 30 bars), Hurst 0.45 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — a decelerating uptrend rolling into chop near the highs. 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided — 4h/1h trend up and net +0.70% 4h / +0.66% 12h positive, but 24h -0.30%, taker ratio 0.596 (sellers pressing last hour), rolling z +1.91 (extended), price -1.0% off 20d/90d high, funding_z 3.85 (crowded long). The extension + fading ADX + heavy sell taker tilts a modest short/fade, but the higher-TF trend is up and XAG spot only -0.29% — a genuine tiebreak fight. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: lean short as a mean-reversion fade — price is +1.9 z-score extended just under the 20d/90d high with funding at a 3.85 z (crowded long), OI bleeding (-4.8% 24h, decelerating), fresh 0.596 sell taker and 5m RSI 71.9 overbought; a pullback toward the mean is the cleaner near-term edge against a tired uptrend. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a fresh push through the 20d/90d high (~1% above) with XAG spot rallying invalidates the fade — trend resumes and the crowded-long unwind never comes. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 56.2958; stop 56.98 above the recent high cluster (~1.2% = within the 2.9% 7d range); TP 55.51 toward the 20d mean / prior consolidation, ~1.39% down, R:R ~1.14. 6. EXPECTATION: mean-reversion edge is real but the higher-TF trend and low silver vol argue for meaningful expiry.

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