SLVONUSD short — 19 Aug 2026 (stopped out)
This short on SLVONUSD entered at 58.8992 and stopped out at 60.34 after 7.7 hours, closing at -2.45%.
| Asset | SLVONUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-19 12:42 |
| Entry | 58.8992 |
| Stop-loss | 60.34 |
| Take-profit 1 | 57.7897 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 57.05 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.28 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 60.34 |
| Realized P&L | -2.45% |
| Time open | 7.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed (2/4) — 5m bull_aligned but RSI 90 extremely overbought, 15m mixed RSI 85 overbought, 1h bear_aligned RSI 67, 4h bull_aligned RSI 53; 1h ADX 40 but slope fading (-3.9), ER_10 0.69 (recent path clean) but ER_30 0.06 (nets nowhere over 30 bars), choppiness 34.8 (trending-ish), Hurst 0.43 mean-reverting, HMM calm conf 1.0 — a sharp near-term up-thrust (net +2.79% 4h/12h) into extreme overbought after a flat 24h. 2. LEAN CHECK: the 4h/12h net move is a violent +2.79% spike that has driven 5m/15m RSI to 85-90 and left 1h EMAs bear-aligned; with Hurst mean-reverting and 24h net move flat (-0.36%), the tilt is a short-side fade of an exhausted overbought pop — this asset's 30d record shows shorts winning repeatedly on exactly this pattern. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is structure/exhaustion — price ran +2.79% in 4h into RSI 90 (5m) / 85 (15m), sits just -2.35% below 5d/20d/90d high (a rejection zone), taker ratio last hour 0.90 (sellers active) and OI momentum decelerating — a classic mean-revert fade that has won three of the last three shorts on this token; it's counter to the 5m/4h bull stacks but the extreme RSI + rejection-at-high is the reclaim-of-exhaustion setup. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a clean break and hold above the 5d high (~60.30) on rising OI/taker buys invalidates the fade — momentum would carry to new highs. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop_loss 60.34 just beyond the 5d/20d/90d high cluster (~+2.45% / above invalidation), entry 58.90; stop distance ~1.44, TP 57.05 (~-3.14%, ~1.28x stop distance) toward the near-term consolidation floor — RR ~1.28, within clamps and traversable given rv_24h 53% and avg 24h move 1.2% with recent 2.8% swings. 6. EXPECTATION: overbought fades are real edge but this token whipsaws (52.7% wr, one -2.27% short loss on continuation); p_tp1 44, p_sl 34, p_expire 22.
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