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SLVONUSD short — 9 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on SLVONUSD entered at 54.4447 and stopped out at 55.18 after 12.1 hours, closing at -1.35%.
| Asset | SLVONUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-09 01:35 |
| Entry | 54.4447 |
| Stop-loss | 55.18 |
| Take-profit 1 | 53.8419 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 53.44 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.37 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 55.18 |
| Realized P&L | -1.35% |
| Time open | 12.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 0/4 but regime bear_trend (1h/4h bear-aligned, 5m/15m bull-mixed from an intraday bounce), 1h ADX 24.4 slope -1.5 (trend fading), choppiness 41.2 (transitional), ER_10 1.0 but ER_30 0.07 (clean recent short leg nets nowhere longer), Hurst 0.34 (mean-reverting), HMM calm conf 1.0 — low-vol bear-tilted tape where recent momentum is actually up. 2. LEAN CHECK: short-horizon flow is UP — net_move +1.34% 4h / +1.25% 12h vs -0.42% 24h, 5m bull-aligned RSI 69, 15m RSI 76 overbought, taker surge earlier (1.89, 1.53) — a counter-trend bounce inside a bear 4h stack; two-sided, but the fading 1h ADX + overbought 15m RSI + mean-reverting Hurst + z_score -0.83 favor the bear trend reasserting after this bounce exhausts. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: short — the dominant 1h/4h EMA stack is bear-aligned and the current spike into 15m overbought (RSI 76) with latest taker 0.715 (sellers returning) sets up mean-reversion back down in a Hurst-0.34 tape; OI accelerating_down (oi_15m_z -1.68) confirms no fresh long conviction behind the bounce. 4. PRE-MORTEM: if price clears the 5d high (-2.87% away, ~56.0) with sustained taker>1, the bounce becomes a trend-change and the short is wrong. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 54.4447; stop above the intraday bounce high / structure at 55.18 (0.98R vs rv — well inside 1.5x realized range); take_profit_1 at 53.44, a round-trip of the bounce back toward the 24h base, ~1.0R and ~1.84% away, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal ~0.9% but p90 range 4.8%. 6. EXPECTATION: counter the overbought spike but bear trend intact — modest edge.
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