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SOLUSD long — 24 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This long on SOLUSD entered at 115.98 and stopped out at 113.55 after 3.7 hours, closing at -2.10%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-24 05:08 |
| Entry | 115.98 |
| Stop-loss | 113.55 |
| Take-profit 1 | 117.702 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 118.85 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.18 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 113.55 |
| Realized P&L | -2.10% |
| Time open | 3.7 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 0/4 (5m mixed/overbought, 15m bear, 1h mixed, 4h bull_aligned), 1h ADX 28.9 but slope -3.1 (fading), ER10 0.30/ER30 0.17 (noisy path netting nowhere), choppiness 58.4 (range-bound edge), Hurst 0.66, HMM calm 0.999 — HTF bull structure but near-term consolidation/mild pullback. 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided but a modest LONG lean survives — net -2.1% 24h yet +1.1% 4h (momentum turning up off the pullback), 4h EMA bull_aligned, top-trader pos ratio 2.32 (heavily long), taker buy/sell 1.16 with the recent hourly ratios firming, and SOL's own 30d WR 64.3% on longs. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is positioning + fresh momentum — top-traders are 2.3x long, taker flow flipped buy-heavy into the last hour, and the 4h uptrend frame is intact; a bounce off the -2.6% flush is the higher-probability continuation. 4. PRE-MORTEM: OI is bleeding (oi_change -5.6%, oi_5m_z -0.79, decelerating) and 5m RSI 74 overbought — if the 4h reclaim fails and price loses the 5d-low pivot, longs unwind and the fade resumes. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 115.98; stop 113.55 below the intraday swing/consolidation floor (~2.1% ≈ 0.4x the 5.1% rv_24h, structural invalidation of the bounce); stretch TP 118.85 (~2.47% ≈ 1.18x stop distance, into the 5d-high shelf at -2.99% region), RR ≈ 1.18, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: chop-regime same-regime signals hover ~55-58% and the tape is only modestly one-sided, so p_tp1 44 / p_sl 38 / p_expire 18.
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