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SOLUSD long — 7 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This long on SOLUSD entered at 118.87 and stopped out at 117.42 after 3 hours, closing at -1.22%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-07 07:05 |
| Entry | 118.87 |
| Stop-loss | 117.42 |
| Take-profit 1 | 119.938 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 120.65 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 117.42 |
| Realized P&L | -1.22% |
| Time open | 3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 0/4 alignment (5m/1h mixed, 15m bear_aligned, 4h bull_aligned), 1h ADX 21.5 slope +2.7 (just at trend threshold, firming), ER10 0.56 / ER30 0.16 / choppiness 30.8 (edging into trend near-term), Hurst 0.29 (strongly mean-reverting), HMM calm 1.0, F&G 71 Greed — chop with latent HTF bull structure but a fresh near-term bear impulse (net -1.63%/12h, -1.13%/24h). 2. LEAN CHECK: genuinely two-sided but a mild LONG lean emerges — top-trader pos ratio 1.99 (heavily long-biased smart money), taker 1h 0.78 is sell-skewed but Hurst 0.29 + z-score -0.63 means price sits below its 20d mean primed to mean-revert up, and the 4h EMA stack remains bull. The recent same-regime long record is poor (3 losses, 2 expired) but the 30d SOL track record is strong (66% WR). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned-ish long — 4h bull structure intact, price only -3% off 5d high and +0.93% above 5d low with a mean-reverting Hurst, top-traders positioned 2:1 long; the sell-side taker pressure and -1.6%/12h dip offers a better entry into the latent uptrend rather than a fresh breakdown. 4. PRE-MORTEM: funding next-prediction has flipped negative (-0.000138 Binance) and OI momentum is accelerating_down with net 12h/24h negative — if the 5d_low at ~117.8 breaks, this is a trending breakdown not a dip and the long invalidates. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 118.87; stop below the 5d-low structure at 117.42 (-1.22%, inside ~1x the 24h traversal/atr); stretch TP at 120.65 (+1.50%, R:R ~1.23) a reclaim toward the 5d-high zone, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal ~1.15% and p90 range 7%. 6. EXPECTATION: mean-reversion edge is real but counter near-term momentum, so modest conviction.
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