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SOLUSD long — 12 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This long on SOLUSD entered at 111.2002 and stopped out at 108.95 after 3 hours, closing at -2.02%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-12 11:35 |
| Entry | 111.2002 |
| Stop-loss | 108.95 |
| Take-profit 1 | 112.7001 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 113.7 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.11 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 108.95 |
| Realized P&L | -2.02% |
| Time open | 3 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 2/4 (5m bear_aligned, 15m/1h/4h mixed), 1h ADX 18.96 slope -3.77 (sub-trend, fading), ER10 0.10 / ER30 0.16 (nets nowhere), choppiness 52.1 (mid-range), Hurst 0.47 mean-reverting, HMM calm 1.0 — this is CHOP, not a trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: fresh momentum is DOWN (net -1.24%/4h), but 24h is +1.44% and price sits z=-0.87 below 20d mean, +4.55% off the 5d/20d/90d low — a modest mean-reversion LONG lean, consistent with this asset's strong 66.7% long track record in chop. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: positioning/flow cluster — top-trader pos ratio 2.08 (longs dominant), OI accelerating_up with +0.71% recent-half build, taker 1.01 balanced, funding modestly positive (agg z +0.71) — not a crowded-long flush setup, and price is stretched below the 20d mean favoring a bounce. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the -1.24%/4h impulse extends and breaks the 5d low (~106), confirming the near-term bear leg and invalidating the bounce. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 111.20; stop 108.95 below the recent swing/5d-low shelf (~2.0% stop, ~0.37x the 24h RV of 54% — well within range); stretch TP 113.70 at the mid-range reclaim toward the 5d-high zone (~2.25% move, R:R ~1.11, inside 1.5x/4% clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: chop with mild upside tilt and a fading bear impulse — p_tp1 44, p_sl 38, p_expire 18.
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