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SOLUSD long — 22 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This long on SOLUSD entered at 106.52 and stopped out at 104.7 after 4.8 hours, closing at -1.71%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | long |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-22 01:39 |
| Entry | 106.52 |
| Stop-loss | 104.7 |
| Take-profit 1 | 107.978 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 108.95 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.34 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 104.7 |
| Realized P&L | -1.71% |
| Time open | 4.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment mixed 2/4 (5m bear, 15m mixed, 1h bull, 4h bear), 1h ADX 24.6 but slope -4.2 fading, ER30 0.04 / choppiness 56.9 / Hurst 0.31 all flag a mean-reverting, non-trending path; HMM calm conf 1.0 — transitional chop, no clean directional trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: genuinely two-sided — 4h/5m bear vs 1h bull, net_move_pct_4h -1.73 (recent down impulse) but 5m RSI 27.7 oversold and taker 1.14 buy-tilt; top-trader pos ratio 2.33 bullish while agg OI -0.91 (longs unwinding). The one durable tiebreak is persistent top-trader positioning long plus a mild taker buy-tilt and bounce-from-oversold setup. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: thin LONG — top_trader_pos_ratio 2.33 (accounts 2.66) heavily long, latest taker 1.14 and 5m RSI 27.7 oversold at the 5d-low vicinity (+5.5% above 20d low, only -2% below 5d high is misleading — price sits mid-range) suggests a mean-reversion bounce off the recent 4h flush, matching this asset's 62.8% WR long bias and the three recent winning long fades. 4. PRE-MORTEM: if 4h bear stack asserts and price breaks the -1.73% 4h-low with OI accelerating down, the oversold bounce fails and it keeps bleeding. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 106.52; stop below the recent flush low at 104.70 (~1.71%, roughly 0.4x rv_24h, within range); stretch TP at 108.95 (~2.28%, R:R ~1.34x) toward the 1h bull reclaim zone / prior intraday balance, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold bounce vs fading trend in chop — honest spread with meaningful expire risk.
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