SOLUSD short — 25 Jul 2026 (expired)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 73.8684 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 74.9883 with a price move of -1.52%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-25 14:03 |
| Entry | 73.8684 |
| Stop-loss | 75.3 |
| Take-profit 1 | 72.58 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 71.721 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 74.9883 |
| Realized P&L | -1.52% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: 1h/15m EMA bear-aligned, 4h/5m mixed (alignment 2/4), 1h ADX 36.9 but slope -2.7 (fading), Hurst 0.48 near-random, choppiness 54 — a decelerating bear trend losing energy. 2. LEAN CHECK: rolling z_20d -1.64 and price only +0.34% off the 5d/20d/90d low with RV at the 6.6th percentile (compressed) — the downside is largely spent; the modest lean is toward a short-side continuation of the fading bear, but conviction is thin. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: 1h/15m bear EMA stack plus fresh 24h/12h/4h net moves all negative and Fear (27) argue for continuation short; however top-trader pos ratio 1.58 long and taker 1.29 buy skew cut against it. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is pinned at the 90d low with z -1.64 and ADX fading — a reclaim/bounce off the low invalidates a fresh short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 73.87, stop above the recent minor swing at 75.30 (beyond the pullback that taker/top-trader flow could produce), take_profit_1 at 71.60 targeting a break of the 90d low (RR ~1.6). 6. EXPECTATION: fading ADX + compressed RV + sitting on the low favors chop/no follow-through, so p_expire is high.
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