SOLUSD short — 31 Jul 2026 (expired)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 73.6712 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 72.98 with a price move of +0.94%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-07-31 07:36 |
| Entry | 73.6712 |
| Stop-loss | 75.05 |
| Take-profit 1 | 72.4303 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 71.603 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 72.98 |
| Realized P&L | +0.94% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4, 4h and 5m EMA stacks bear_aligned while 1h/15m mixed, ADX_1h 26.7 but slope negative (-0.47) and ADX_20 only 18, Hurst 0.49 (near-random), choppiness 49.6, HMM calm — a transitional, mildly-bearish-but-fading tape, not a clean trend. 2. LEAN CHECK: fresh downside momentum (net_move_4h -0.65%, net_move_12h -1.51%) plus 4h/5m bear stacks tilt short, but funding is elevated positive (z +1.69, agg z +1.75) and top-traders heavily net long (acct 2.75, pos 1.64) — a crowded-long unwind risk that also supports the short side; lean short. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is trend-aligned short — 4h bear stack + fresh 12h downleg + elevated positive funding/z (crowded longs vulnerable to a squeeze-down) + OI bleeding (oi_5m_z -1.99, agg OI -2.6%) with decelerating momentum, price sitting -4.2% below 5d high and z_20d -0.95. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a reclaim of the 5m/1h EMA and a taker ratio pushing back above ~1.1 with fear_greed 25 (extreme fear = contrarian bounce fuel) would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: mark 73.67; stop above the 1h EMA/recent swing near 75.05 (~1.87% risk, beyond the reclaim invalidation); stretch TP at 71.05 toward the 5d-low zone (~3.55% / ~1.4x risk), reachable given avg 24h traversal ~1.7% and rv elevated. 6. EXPECTATION: this asset's WR is weak (26.7%) and regime is choppy, so temper — p_tp1 37, p_sl 41, p_expire 22.
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