SOLUSD short — 4 Aug 2026 (expired)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 73.83 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 73.756 with a price move of +0.10%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-08-04 05:00 |
| Entry | 73.83 |
| Stop-loss | 75.05 |
| Take-profit 1 | 72.732 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 72 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.50 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 73.756 |
| Realized P&L | +0.10% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed (2/4) — 5m/15m bull-stacked but 1h mixed and 4h bear-aligned; ADX 1h only 12.3 with negative slope, ADX-20 ~10, choppiness 59, ER10 0.09/ER30 0.03, Hurst 0.43 — this is genuine chop, no directional trend, with weak short-term upward tilt. 2. LEAN CHECK: funding is crowded long (funding_z +1.65, agg_funding_z +1.82, top-trader pos ratio 1.77 long) and OI momentum is accelerating_down with the position ratio fading (4h chg -0.053) — the crowded long into a fading, choppy tape with 4h still bear-aligned leans mildly SHORT, and this asset's own record favors shorts (short WR 43% vs long 34%, and SOLUSD long WR is a dismal 18.8%). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: crowded-long positioning unwinding (accelerating_down OI, top-trader ratio slipping) against a 4h bear stack is the fade setup that has repeatedly won on SOLUSD; 24h net move +1.25% has stalled (4h net only +0.05%) suggesting the bounce is exhausting near the 5d high (-1.29% away). 4. PRE-MORTEM: reclaim of the 5d high with taker buy-side surge and rising ADX would flip this into a breakout long and invalidate the fade. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 73.83; stop above the 5d-high pivot at 75.05 (~1.65% risk, beyond the exhaustion level); stretch target down at 71.85 (~2.68% reward, R:R ~1.6) into the recent consolidation shelf, reachable within 24h given avg 24h traversal 1.39% and rv 41%. 6. EXPECTATION: chop with weak edge — modest p_tp1, meaningful p_expire.
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