SOLUSD short — 1 Sep 2026 (hit target)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 100.998 and hit its target at 99.8292 after 1.4 hours, closing at +1.16%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-01 16:48 |
| Entry | 100.998 |
| Stop-loss | 102.45 |
| Take-profit 1 | 99.8292 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 99.05 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.34 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 99.8292 |
| Realized P&L | +1.16% |
| Time open | 1.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m/15m bear-aligned, 1h mixed RSI 32.7 oversold, 4h bull), 1h ADX 17.5 slope +2.98, ER10 0.68 (clean recent one-way down) / ER30 0.22 (nets nowhere), choppiness 46.5, Hurst 0.59, HMM calm 0.9999 — a cooling HTF uptrend actively rolling over into a fresh downside push, low-ADX transitional tape. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest short lean — near-term momentum is down (net -0.9% 4h, -2.5% 12h, price at 5d/20d low), lower TFs bear-aligned, and the prior analyst short setups here have won repeatedly on this exact pattern. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: momentum/structure cluster — price sitting at 5d low (dist_from_5d_low +0.00%) with 5m/15m bear EMA stacks and a clean ER10 0.68 downside push; funding deeply negative (z -1.99, agg z -1.88) shows longs unwinding not shorts crowding, so continuation lower is unblocked. Counter: top-traders very long (pos 1.99, rising) and 4h EMA still bull — this is a fade of the HTF, so I keep confidence modest. 4. PRE-MORTEM: a reclaim above ~102.3 (1h structure / prior support) with taker ratio flipping >1.0 would invalidate the breakdown and signal the oversold 1h RSI 32.7 bouncing. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 100.998; stop_loss 102.45 above the reclaim level (~1.44% / ~0.75x the 24h avg move 3.23% — within range); take_profit_1 99.05 (~1.93% below, structural next support toward 20d-low zone), R:R ≈ 1.34, inside 1.5x/4% clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: near-term down push is real but 4h trend and long top-traders cap follow-through, and chop tape expires often.
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