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SOLUSD short — 11 Sep 2026 (expired)

This short on SOLUSD entered at 101.79 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 101.991 with a price move of -0.20%, and does not count in the win rate.

AssetSOLUSD
Directionshort
Issued (UTC)2026-09-11 16:27
Entry101.79
Stop-loss104.15
Take-profit 1100.176
Take-profit 2 (stretch)99.1
Reward:risk at entry1.14
Outcomeexpired flat
Close price101.991
Realized P&L-0.20%
Time open24 hours

What the model saw at issue time

AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.

1. REGIME READ: 1h EMA bear_aligned with ADX 38.3 but slope -1.9 (strong trend fading), 5m bull/15m-4h mixed (alignment 0/4, tagged bear_trend), ER10 0.20 / ER30 0.04, choppiness 35.9, Hurst 0.42 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — a maturing downtrend that has lost directional cleanliness and is chopping near 5d lows. 2. LEAN CHECK: two-sided pull — net +2.2% 24h / +2.2% 12h is positive (bounce off lows), yet 1h taker ratio 0.818 and last several hourly ratios sub-1.0 show fresh sell pressure, and OI is collapsing (oi_15m_z -5.0, accelerating_down, agg_oi -2.9%); lean short on the fresh flow deterioration into a fading trend near lows. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow — taker 0.818 with a run of sub-1.0 hourly buckets plus accelerating OI unwind signals longs bleeding out; total_mcap -4% and SPX/BTC-dom weak give a macro/cross-asset tailwind for downside continuation. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-traders are heavily long (pos ratio 2.15) and price is only +3.2% off 5d/20d/90d lows — a squeeze reclaim above ~103.5 with rising OI would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 101.79, stop 104.15 (beyond the recent bounce structure/short-term reclaim, ~2.3% ≈ 0.5x rv-scaled 24h range given high atr), TP1 stretch 99.10 (structural push back toward 5d low zone, ~2.6% = 1.14x stop distance, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: fading trend + high vol + near-lows squeeze risk keep this modest.

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