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SOLUSD short — 29 Sep 2026 (stopped out)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 117.53 and stopped out at 119.85 after 8.2 hours, closing at -1.97%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-09-29 17:53 |
| Entry | 117.53 |
| Stop-loss | 119.85 |
| Take-profit 1 | 116.072 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 115.1 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.05 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 119.85 |
| Realized P&L | -1.97% |
| Time open | 8.2 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m/15m bear_aligned & oversold RSI ~29, 1h mixed, 4h bull_aligned), 1h ADX 17.9 slope +0.8 (weak/flat), ER10 0.30/ER30 0.06 (noisy, nets nowhere), choppiness 47.9 (neutral), Hurst 0.49, HMM calm — HTF bull structure eroding into a near-term bearish pullback; transitional/chop-lean-down. 2. LEAN CHECK: near-term SHORT lean — net -2.89% 4h, -1.87% 24h fresh downside momentum, and this asset's own track record shows shorts on exactly this "HTF bull eroding into pullback" template winning repeatedly. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: momentum cluster favors short — sharp -2.89% 4h leg with 5m/15m bear-aligned, but this is the weakest of the recent short setups because agg funding is negative (-0.86z, shorts already paying), top-traders heavily long (pos ratio 2.16), and OI momentum accelerating_up — counter-signals suggest the pullback may be nearing exhaustion. 4. PRE-MORTEM: oversold RSI 29 on 5m/15m plus 4h bull_aligned and heavy top-trader long positioning could snap back a reclaim above ~119.5, invalidating the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 117.53; stop above the recent intraday shelf and reclaim zone at 119.85 (~2.0% ≈ 0.8x atr, structural invalidation); target the 5d-low retest region at 115.10 (~2.06% down), R:R ≈ 1.05, within clamps and reachable given 2.4% avg 24h traversal. 6. EXPECTATION: fresh momentum but crowded-short/oversold cross-currents temper conviction.
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