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SOLUSD short — 1 Oct 2026 (stopped out)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 117.8875 and stopped out at 119.95 after 11.5 hours, closing at -1.75%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-01 14:35 |
| Entry | 117.8875 |
| Stop-loss | 119.95 |
| Take-profit 1 | 116.575 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 115.7 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.06 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 119.95 |
| Realized P&L | -1.75% |
| Time open | 11.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 0/4 (5m mixed, 15m & 1h bear_aligned, 4h bull_aligned), 1h ADX 14.2 slope +2.7 (sub-trend, firming slightly), ER30 0.018 / choppiness 55.7 (noisy, nets nowhere), Hurst 0.39 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 1.0 — this is chop with HTF bull structure eroding into a near-term bear tilt. 2. LEAN CHECK: mild SHORT lean — net -0.12%/4h, -0.28%/12h, -0.77%/24h, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -1.21, agg OI -0.28%/24h, recent half -1.80%), taker last-bar 0.972 sell-side; the two prior SOL short wins came from exactly this "4h-bull eroding into near-term pullback + OI bleeding" setup. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — accelerating_down OI with price drifting lower and sub-1.0 taker ratio signals longs unwinding rather than fresh shorts chasing; trend-aligned with the 15m/1h bear stack. 4. PRE-MORTEM: top-trader position ratio is a very long 2.09 and funding is near-flat/slightly negative next-print — if that smart-money long base defends and 4h bull reasserts, price reclaims ~119 and the short fails. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 117.89, stop above the 5d-low-reclaim/recent swing at 119.95 (~1.75% ~0.4x of the 4.1% ADR, structural invalidation above the 1h bear stack); target 115.70 just above the next support shelf, ~1.86% / RR ~1.07, reachable inside avg 24h traversal of 1.93%. 6. EXPECTATION: chop regime caps conviction and SOL mean-reverts; p_tp1 44, p_sl 38, p_expire 18.
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