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SOLUSD short — 7 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 117.06 and hit its target at 115.704 after 1.1 hours, closing at +1.16%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-07 12:35 |
| Entry | 117.06 |
| Stop-loss | 119.3 |
| Take-profit 1 | 115.704 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 114.8 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.01 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 115.704 |
| Realized P&L | +1.16% |
| Time open | 1.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m/15m bear_aligned, 1h mixed oversold RSI 27, 4h bull_aligned), 1h ADX 29.5 slope +5.6 (trending and firming), ER10 0.44 / ER30 0.23 / choppiness 36.1 (edging into trend), Hurst 0.32 (mean-reverting), HMM calm 1.0, F&G 71 — transitional with a fresh clean DOWN impulse that just tagged the 5d/20d low. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean — net -0.98%/4h, -2.92%/12h, -2.82%/24h, price at 5d low (0.000% off), taker ratio 0.886 (sell-tilted, last several hourly buckets sub-1), funding deeply negative (z -3.13, agg z -3.04) but that reflects an active short regime not yet exhausted; the lower-TF trend is firmly down and firming. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short on the near-term timeframes — 5m/15m bear_aligned with high ADX (44/47), rising 1h ADX, sustained negative 12/24h momentum, and sell-side taker flow driving a clean break to the 5d low; broad crypto risk-off (total mcap -4.1%, total3 -3.5%, SOL correlated 0.90 BTC which is also soft). 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h RSI 27 oversold + rolling z -1.94 + 4h still bull_aligned + extreme-negative funding = conditions ripe for a mean-reversion bounce; a reclaim back above ~119 would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 117.06; stop above the 4h/near-term reclaim shelf at 119.35 (~1.96% / within rv_24h 42% ann ≈ ~2.2% daily range), target the next structural low extension at 114.80 (~1.93% below, R:R ≈ 0.99→ nudge stop tighter to 119.30 giving R:R ~1.0). 6. EXPECTATION: oversold + extreme funding cap downside follow-through, so meaningful p_expire.
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