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SOLUSD short — 7 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 116.27 and hit its target at 114.728 after 14.5 hours, closing at +1.33%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-07 13:50 |
| Entry | 116.27 |
| Stop-loss | 118.65 |
| Take-profit 1 | 114.728 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 113.7 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.08 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 114.728 |
| Realized P&L | +1.33% |
| Time open | 14.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m/15m/1h bear_aligned, 4h still bull but RSI 33), 1h ADX 31.9 slope +6.1 (trend firming hard), ER10 0.56 moderate / ER30 0.33 / choppiness 34.0 (edging into trend), Hurst 0.33 (mean-reverting), HMM calm — a strengthening DOWN trend that just tagged the 5d/20d/90d lows. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT — net -1.24%/4h, -2.25%/12h, -3.83%/24h, taker 24h buckets persistently sub-1.0, agg funding z -3.04 unwinding, price at fresh lows with ADX accelerating. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: dominant cluster is trend+flow — 1h bear EMA stack with ADX firming (+6.1 slope), sustained sub-1.0 taker ratios all day, and price pinned at 5d/20d/90d lows (dist +0.000 to lows) confirms sellers in control; prior SOL shorts into these lows won twice. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 1h RSI 23.3 oversold + z-score -2.48 + Hurst 0.33 (mean-reversion) raise bounce risk; a reclaim of ~118.5 with top-trader pos ratio still long-tilted (1.92) would invalidate the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 116.27, stop above the broken 1h structure at 118.65 (~2.05%, within ~0.5-1.5x atr/rv), stretch TP down to 113.70 (~2.2%, R:R ~1.08, inside clamps) targeting continuation past the fresh low. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold + mean-reversion tempers downside follow-through, so moderate p_tp1.
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