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SOLUSD short — 9 Oct 2026 (expired)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 108.5325 and reached neither its target nor its stop within 24 hours. It expired at 110.455 with a price move of -1.77%, and does not count in the win rate.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-09 19:50 |
| Entry | 108.5325 |
| Stop-loss | 110.95 |
| Take-profit 1 | 107.043 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 106.05 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.03 |
| Outcome | expired flat |
| Close price | 110.455 |
| Realized P&L | -1.77% |
| Time open | 24 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 4/4 alignment with 5m/15m/1h bear_aligned (4h mixed), 1h ADX 31.4 but slope -1.13 (genuine trend, just starting to fade), ER10 0.29 / ER30 0.18 (noisy), choppiness 52.8 (middling), Hurst 0.48 (near-random), HMM calm 1.0 — a down trend losing steam, not accelerating. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT by trend alignment and fresh momentum (net -1.07%/4h, -1.93%/12h) but tempered — this is NOT the clean accelerating down trend the prior winning shorts caught; it's a tired leg with deeply oversold readings. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — EMA stack bear across 5m/15m/1h, OI accelerating_down (oi_15m_z -2.03, momentum accelerating_down) confirms shorts pressing, aggregated funding slightly positive but z -0.27 (unwinding), price sits -0.58%/24h with recent momentum down. 4. PRE-MORTEM: 5m RSI 25.4 / 4h RSI 26.5 are deeply oversold, rolling z -2.48, price only +2.07% off 5d/20d/90d lows, taker ratio 1.17 (buyers) and top-trader pos ratio 1.85 (longs leaning in) — a mean-reversion bounce off this oversold floor would invalidate quickly. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 108.53, stop above the recent 4h swing at 110.95 (invalidation of the down leg, ~2.23% ≈ within 1x the ~1.95% 24h traversal / rv), target 106.15 structural retest toward the 5d-low zone (~2.19% down, RR ~0.98 — nudge target to 106.05 for RR >=1.0). 6. EXPECTATION: deeply oversold + buyer taker tilt + top-trader longs cap the short's edge, so modest conviction with real bounce risk.
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