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SOLUSD short — 12 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 108.6845 and hit its target at 107.3138 after 2.8 hours, closing at +1.26%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-12 14:50 |
| Entry | 108.6845 |
| Stop-loss | 110.75 |
| Take-profit 1 | 107.3138 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 106.4 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.11 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 107.3138 |
| Realized P&L | +1.26% |
| Time open | 2.8 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF 2/4 mixed/transitional, 1h ADX 21.8 slope +2.3 (barely-trend firming), ER10 0.89 (clean one-way recently) vs ER30 0.07 (nets nowhere longer-horizon), choppiness 39.8 (edging trend), Hurst 0.46 mean-reverting, HMM calm 1.0 — a sharp fresh DOWN impulse within a broader chop. 2. LEAN CHECK: SHORT lean on fresh momentum — net -2.69%/4h with ER10 0.89 shows a clean recent down-leg, OI accelerating_down (oi_5m_z -3.4, oi_momentum accelerating_down), agg OI -3.17%/24h, taker 0.975 (sellers edge), 4h liqs 99.7% long (longs getting flushed). 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: strongest cluster is flow/OI — accelerating OI unwind on a clean -2.69%/4h down-leg with longs liquidating confirms downside continuation; macro VIX +3.6% and total mcap -2.4%/24h are a mild tailwind. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price sits z=-1.37 below 20d mean with 15m RSI 18.9 oversold and top-traders very long (pos ratio 2.05) — a mean-reversion bounce off the 5d low (+2.15% away) would invalidate; this asset's 30d record is long-biased (65.8% wr on longs) and same-regime shorts untested. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 108.68, stop above the 4h structure / recent intraday reclaim at 110.75 (~1.9% above, within the ~4.5% ADR and sized to RV), target the 5d-low zone at 106.40 — stop dist 2.07, target dist 2.28, R:R ~1.1x, inside clamps. 6. EXPECTATION: oversold RSI and strong long positioning cap downside continuation odds; momentum favors the short modestly.
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