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SOLUSD short — 25 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 101.7244 and hit its target at 100.4498 after 3.1 hours, closing at +1.25%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-25 22:42 |
| Entry | 101.7244 |
| Stop-loss | 103.45 |
| Take-profit 1 | 100.4498 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 99.6 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.23 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 100.4498 |
| Realized P&L | +1.25% |
| Time open | 3.1 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF mixed 2/4 (5m/15m mixed, 1h/4h bear_aligned), 1h ADX 19.1 slope -2.9 (sub-trend, fading), ER10 0.24 / ER30 0.13 / choppiness 55.6 / Hurst 0.41 — mean-reverting, non-trending structure with a bearish higher-TF EMA stack; HMM calm conf 1.0. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest SHORT — 1h+4h bear-aligned, price pinned near 5d/20d/90d low (-6.3% from high, +2.0% off low), rolling z -1.30 (stretched below mean), latest 1h taker 0.72 and hourly taker roll fading; but 12h net +1.03 and top-trader pos ratio 2.13 long contradict. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: higher-TF trend is the tiebreak — both 1h and 4h EMA stacks bear-aligned and 4h RSI 42 with no momentum reclaim, while this asset's own track record favors shorts in bearish SOL tape; macro risk-off (SPX -0.5%, VIX +2.2%, total3 -4.2% 5d, BTC $138M ETF outflow) is a tailwind. 4. PRE-MORTEM: oi_momentum accelerating_up + top-trader pos ratio 2.13 long means a reclaim of ~103 would flip the near-term, invalidating the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 101.72, stop 103.45 (beyond the OI-building reclaim zone / recent 12h push high), stop dist ~1.70%; TP 99.60 (toward 5d low retest), reward ~2.09% = R:R ~1.23, inside clamps, traversable given avg_move_24h 1.47% and rv_24h 38.7. 6. EXPECTATION: bearish TF lean but chop/mean-reversion caps conviction and top-trader longs/accelerating OI push expiry probability up.
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