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SOLUSD short — 26 Oct 2026 (hit target)

This short on SOLUSD entered at 100.6145 and hit its target at 99.4358 after 7.4 hours, closing at +1.17%.

AssetSOLUSD
Directionshort
Issued (UTC)2026-10-26 23:27
Entry100.6145
Stop-loss102.35
Take-profit 199.4358
Take-profit 2 (stretch)98.65
Reward:risk at entry1.13
Outcomehit its target
Close price99.4358
Realized P&L+1.17%
Time open7.4 hours

What the model saw at issue time

AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.

1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4 (5m/15m/1h/4h all bear-aligned), 1h ADX 30.2 slope +0.14 (genuine, barely firming trend), 4h ADX 26.8, ER10 0.06 / ER30 0.12 / choppiness 52.8 / Hurst 0.40 — a bearish EMA stack on all TFs but a noisy, mean-reverting path; HMM calm conf 1.0, RV at 74th pctile. 2. LEAN CHECK: modest SHORT — every TF bear-aligned, net_move 12h/24h negative, price well below the 5d high (-6.1%) and z-score -1.50. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: trend-aligned short — full_bearish stack with ADX 30 above trend threshold is the strongest cluster, and SOL's own 30d record (65.5% wr) plus recent same-regime shorts favor the side. 4. PRE-MORTEM: price is sitting at +0.94% above the 5d/20d/90d low with z-score deeply stretched (-1.50) and taker ratio ~0.99 neutral — a mean-reversion bounce off the low invalidates the short. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: stop above the recent intraday swing at 102.35 (beyond invalidation, ~1.73% = ~0.35x rv_24h, reasonable); target at the 5d low retest zone 98.65 (~1.95% move, R:R ~1.13, inside clamps). 6. EXPECTATION: trend favors continuation but the stretched z-score and proximity to the low cap the downside and raise bounce risk.

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