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SOLUSD short — 29 Oct 2026 (hit target)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 96.2274 and hit its target at 93.8 after 3.4 hours, closing at +2.52%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-10-29 20:57 |
| Entry | 96.2274 |
| Stop-loss | 98.65 |
| Take-profit 1 | 94.771 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 93.8 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.00 |
| Outcome | hit its target |
| Close price | 93.8 |
| Realized P&L | +2.52% |
| Time open | 3.4 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: mtf_alignment full_bearish 4/4 (all TFs bear_aligned), 1h ADX 19.8 slope +0.1 (just under trend threshold, flat), ER10 0.49 / ER30 0.27 / choppiness 25.5 (sub-38 = trending) / Hurst 0.33 — a fresh bearish impulse day, HMM calm conf 1.0, RV 24h at 100th pctile (vol stretched). 2. LEAN CHECK: price just printed a fresh 5d/20d/90d low (dist +0.000), net_move -5.7% 4h / -6.3% 24h, z_score -2.85 — momentum is clearly down, but RSI is deeply oversold across 5m(18)/15m(16)/1h(26) and top-traders are heavily long (pos ratio 2.89) — two-sided but the dominant tape is bearish continuation. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: full_bearish MTF stack + choppiness 25.5 (genuine trend) + fresh breakdown to new lows + OI unwinding (agg -7.8%, oi_5m_z -5.3) is capitulation-style down continuation; the 65.9% SOL track record is overwhelmingly short-side in this regime. 4. PRE-MORTEM: the deep multi-TF oversold RSI (16/18/26) at a fresh low invites a sharp mean-reversion bounce — if price reclaims ~98.5 with momentum the short is wrong. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: short from 96.23, stop above the recent intraday structure/invalidation at 98.65 (~2.5% = ~0.6x the 4%+ realized day, inside the oversold-bounce risk); take_profit_1 stretch at 93.80 (~2.52% down, R:R ~1.0) — a reachable continuation leg given the 6% daily range. 6. EXPECTATION: deeply oversold tempers the downside odds; honest distribution with meaningful bounce/expire probability.
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