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SOLUSD short — 5 Nov 2026 (stopped out)
This short on SOLUSD entered at 89.03 and stopped out at 91.3 after 20.5 hours, closing at -2.55%.
| Asset | SOLUSD |
| Direction | short |
| Issued (UTC) | 2026-11-05 18:08 |
| Entry | 89.03 |
| Stop-loss | 91.3 |
| Take-profit 1 | 87.542 |
| Take-profit 2 (stretch) | 86.55 |
| Reward:risk at entry | 1.09 |
| Outcome | stopped out |
| Close price | 91.3 |
| Realized P&L | -2.55% |
| Time open | 20.5 hours |
What the model saw at issue time
AI-generated analysis, written before the outcome was known. Quoted verbatim, never edited after the close.
1. REGIME READ: MTF full_bearish 4/4, all EMAs bear_aligned, 1h ADX 32 slope +6.4 (strengthening), 4h ADX 27, Hurst 0.27 anti-persistent, choppiness 28 (trending edge), HMM calm — a genuine downtrend accelerating, SOL -7.2% 24h flushing into deep oversold (RSI 5m 27 / 15m 18 / 1h 23). 2. LEAN CHECK: trend-aligned side is short (OI accelerating_down, oi_15m_z -2.8, agg OI -8.4%, taker 0.95, net -4.3% last 4h), but the tape is deeply oversold at z-score -2.18 and sitting on the 5d/20d/90d lows (dist_from_low +0.00) — the clean lean is still short-with-momentum, with the caveat of exhaustion. 3. DIRECTIONAL THESIS: short — OI accelerating_down with oi_15m_z -2.8 and agg OI -8.4% means positions are being forcibly unwound into new lows while taker ratio stays sub-1, a trend-aligned momentum continuation; the only contradicting cluster is top-trader pos ratio 2.72 (longs leaning in, rising) which has repeatedly been a losing tell when faded on SOL. 4. PRE-MORTEM: deeply oversold (RSI 18 on 15m, z -2.18, fresh 90d low) — a sharp mean-reversion bounce off the low would reclaim and invalidate before new lows. 5. LEVEL PLACEMENT: entry 89.03; stop above the prior 4h structure / recent swing at 91.30 (2.55% / ~0.5x the 5.3% 7d range, fits the elevated RV); target the next measured leg down at 86.80 (2.51% / ~0.99x stop distance, R:R ~0.99 → nudge target to 86.55 for 2.78% ≈ 1.09x), reachable given avg 24h traversal 2.1% and current momentum. 6. EXPECTATION: trend-aligned but oversold into lows raises bounce/expire odds — p_tp1 42, p_sl 37, p_expire 21.
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